首先是针对无或单失效数据情形下，通过多层贝叶斯估计法得到失效概率过后，给出了寿命分布参数的加权最小二乘估计。然后如果失效数据不止一个，使用乘积限估计法来得到失效概率的估计值。(Firstly, the weighted least squares estimation of the life distribution parameters is given by the multi-layer Bayesian estimation method after the failure probability is obtained for the case of no or single failure data. Then if the failure data is more than one, the product limit estimation method is used to obtain the estimated value of the failure probability.)