利用马尔可夫链进行预测 , 其关键是转移概率矩阵的计算 。 本文给出了计算转移概率矩阵的一种统计方法 ,并且给出了实例计算 ,目的是为企业进行科学管理和决策提供科学依据 。(The key to prediction using the Markov chain is the calculation of the transition probability matrix. This paper presents a statistical method for calculating the transition probability matrix, and gives an example calculation, which aims to provide a scientific basis for scientific management and decision-making.)